CPI Forecast Apr 2023

This is a follow up to the series started here. As described there, my approach is to forecast CPI for the top 23 components contributing 70% of the weight, and using time series averaging for the bottom 30% of components (like the nowcast) for the rest.

Estimating Apr 2023 CPI 4.96% annual and 0.53% monthly (without seasonal adjustment).

Takeaways

• Main increase contributors: Gas, Housing
• Main decrease contributors: Used cars, Health insurance
• SuperCore components ticking up again after dipping in March

Top 23 components below:

Prediction error so far

SuperCore rising in Apr